Supply Has Gone Up, Causing a Decline in Residual Values


Eric Lyman
VP, Edi­to­r­i­al and Part­ner Devel­op­ment

Expect­ed sea­son­al move­ment in resid­ual val­ues for this edi­tion of ALG’s Indus­try Report is -1.3 per­cent­age points (ppts). At the indus­try lev­el, ALG’s sup­ply fore­cast rose for this edi­tion, caus­ing a -0.2-ppt impact on resid­u­als. Gaso­line prices were down sig­nif­i­cant­ly; vehi­cles with weak fuel econ­o­my had increas­es of up to +0.4 ppts, while fuel effi­cient seg­ments had declines of up to -0.4 ppts.

Gen­er­al Motors Has Been Doing Well Dur­ing Dra­mat­ic Recalls:
So far there’s been no used mar­ket impact on Chevro­let Cruze, and even Cobalt seems to be escap­ing rel­a­tive­ly unscathed.

Seg­ment-lev­el Sup­ply Had a -0.2-ppt Impact on Resid­u­als:
Sup­ply changes var­ied by seg­ment, rang­ing from -0.7 ppts for Full­size Util­i­ty to 0 ppts for Micro­car.

Unem­ploy­ment Rate Has Sta­bi­lized at 6.7% Over Past 4 Months:
GDP is expect­ed to rise by approx­i­mate­ly 2.7% in 2014 and 3.0% in 2015.



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