NADA Guidelines — September 2015

NADA Used Car Guide

USED MARKET UPDATE
Whole­sale used vehi­cle prices fell by 1.9% on a month­ly basis in August. That fig­ure is mod­er­ate­ly bet­ter than NADA Used Car Guide’s 2.2% ─ 2.7% fore­cast and a sub­stan­tial improve­ment over the near­ly 3% fall record­ed last year. The month’s result placed NADA Used Car Guide’s sea­son­al­ly adjust­ed used vehi­cle price index at 123.1, up a slight 0.3% from both July (2015) and August (2014). Con­sid­er­ing the index is down a mere 0.5% year-to-date, used vehi­cle demand — and thus prices — has remained strong despite high­er new vehi­cle incen­tives (par­tic­u­lar­ly lease incen­tives) and an ongo­ing rise in sup­ply.

That estab­lished, the mar­ket has clear­ly favored trucks, while cars have lan­guished.
Sub­com­pact car prices con­tin­ued to nose­dive last month, drop­ping by an indus­try-high 3.4%. Prices for the group have fall­en by 14.6% yearto-date, sec­ond only to the lux­u­ry large car drop of 16.2%. For per­spec­tive, over­all indus­try prices have fall­en by 10.4%. A bur­geon­ing sup­ply of sub­com­pact cars at auc­tion isn’t help­ing mat­ters for the low demand seg­ment. Sup­ply for the group has grown by more than 30,000 units over the year, up near­ly 60% from 2014.

Com­pact and mid-size cars fared a bit bet­ter in August than in the three months pri­or when depre­ci­a­tion exceed­ed 3%. The month’s com­bined 2.4% tum­ble was still above-aver­age for the peri­od. Large c fared a bit bet­ter as depre­ci­a­tion for the group stopped just short of 2%. Year-to-date depre­ci­a­tion for the trio stands at 12.1%, near­ly 2 per­cent­age points high­er than the indus­try aver­age.

Gen­er­al­ly speak­ing, truck loss­es were rough­ly half those of cars last month. Mid-size pick­up, large pick­up, and mid-size util­i­ty depre­ci­a­tion aver­aged 1%, while com­pact util­i­ty prices were down by a steep­er 1.7%. Large SUV prices were (once again) flat. Mid-size van depre­ci­a­tion has exceed­ed 2% in August more often than not over the past 15 years; how­ev­er, prices fell by just 1.2% last month.

Mid-size pick­up prices have fall­en by a skele­tal 3.1% so far this year, while large pick­up depre­ci­a­tion stands at an almost equal­ly impres­sive 4%. Mid-size util­i­ty prices are 7.2% low­er year-to-date, while com­pact and mid-size van prices are down 8.3% and 11.4%, respec­tive­ly.

Lux­u­ry car and truck loss­es were gen­er­al­ly lighter than in both July (2015) and last August (2014). Lux­u­ry mid-size car depre­ci­a­tion slowed the most, mov­ing from 3.3% in July to just 1.4% last month. Prices for oth­er lux­u­ry seg­ments fell by an aver­age near 2%. For the year, lux­u­ry com­pact and lux­u­ry mid-size util­i­ties prices have fall­en by 9.7% and 10.9%, respec­tive­ly, while lux­u­ry com­pact and lux­u­ry mid-size car prices are down 12.9% and 14.3%, respec­tive­ly.

AUCTION VOLUME TRENDS
A por­tion of August’s pric­ing strength can like­ly be traced to low­er auc­tion sup­ply. Vol­ume of mod­els up to 8 years old reached 291,000 units in August, down 8% from July’s total. August’s total was also 6% low­er than last year’s 310,000 unit fig­ure.

Com­pared to July, no mod­el year (MY) real­ized an increase in vol­ume, includ­ing MY15 which had expe­ri­enced con­sis­tent growth in sup­ply in pri­or months. Vol­ume for the year fell by 10% from July to 25,000 units.

Sup­ply for MY12 and MY13 fell by an aver­age of 12% to 47,000 and 45,000 units, respec­tive­ly. Vol­ume for MY14 also reached 45,000 units, down 3% from July. Vol­ume for old­er mod­els was off by an aver­age of 5%.

Year-to-date vol­ume stands at 2.81 mil­lion units, up 6% from the same peri­od last year.
Vol­ume for MY15 is 5% high­er than it was for 2014 mod­els last year, while 2013 and 2014 sup­ply is up by an aver­age of 18% on a like-age basis.

SEPTEMBER USED VEHICLE PRICE FORECAST
NADA Used Car Guide’s fore­cast for Sep­tem­ber has prices of vehi­cles up to eight years old falling by 2.5% ─ 3% com­pared to August. This year’s antic­i­pat­ed rate of depre­ci­a­tion would be slight­ly bet­ter than the 3.4% decline record­ed in Sep­tem­ber 2014, but right on par with the 2.7% decline aver­aged in the two pri­or years.

Depre­ci­a­tion for the month is expect­ed to be the great­est in the mid-size van seg­ment, fol­lowed close­ly by sub­com­pact and com­pact cars. Loss­es for the three should reach or come close to the high end of our over­all fore­cast, while mid-size car, util­i­ty, and pick­up depre­ci­a­tion should be near-to, or below the low-end. Lux­u­ry vehi­cle loss­es should be
more severe than those of main­stream cars.
NADA’s fore­cast has prices drop­ping by approx­i­mate­ly 3% in Octo­ber.

SEPTEMBER OFFICIAL USED CAR GUIDE VALUE MOVEMENT
Trade-in val­ues in September’s edi­tion of the NADA Offi­cial Used Car Guide decreased by 2.8% rel­a­tive to August. Cars val­ues were low­ered by a com­bined aver­age of 3.3%, which was worse than the truck segment’s com­bined aver­age of 2.5%, mak­ing this the fourth con­sec­u­tive month trucks out­per­formed cars. Entry Sub­com­pact cars per­formed the worst. As a result, val­ues were low­ered by 5%. On the oppo­site end of the spec­trum, large SUVs per­formed the best as val­ues were only low­ered by 0.3%. Lux­u­ry vehi­cle val­ues were low­ered by 2.4%, which was bet­ter than the main­stream aver­age of 2.8%.

This is the fourth straight month where lux­u­ry vehi­cles out­per­formed their main­stream
coun­ter­parts.

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