New Vehicle Sales Should Hit Peak in 2017

Charles Ches­brough
Senior Prin­ci­pal Econ­o­mist
IHS Auto­mo­tive

IHS Auto­mo­tive will hit a peak of 18.2M new light-duty vehi­cles sold in 2017 before lev­el­ing off and declin­ing to 16.97 in 2022. The pre­vi­ous peak was 17.4M in 2000, with 17.76M expect­ed for next year and 17.31M in 2015. Low gaso­line prices, con­sumer con­fi­dence, a strong hous­ing mar­ket, and attrac­tive auto loan financ­ing are con­tribut­ing to bet­ter-than-expect­ed sales. Ris­ing inter­est rates and high­er vehi­cle prices are expect­ed to soft­en new vehi­cle sales beyond 2017.

Here’s cov­er­age of the IHS fore­cast report

Avail­abil­i­ty of Cred­it for Low-Inter­est Loans Has Been Major Sales Dri­ver:
Aver­age loan length con­tin­u­ing to length­en – now at 64.6 months, near­ly 5.5 years.

New Vehi­cle Sales Also Being Spurred by Wave of New Car and Truck Mod­els:
Should be 76 new mod­els intro­duced next year and 74 in 2017, up from 49 in 2015.

Aver­age Age of Vehi­cles in Oper­a­tion Will Increase 3% by 2020 from Cur­rent Lev­el of 11.5 Years:
Reg­is­tered vehi­cles have increased 2.1% — by 5.3M for a total of 257.9M U.S. vehi­cles.



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